Despite large drop in son preference, a third of Georgians still prefer having a boy to a girl

[Note: This article was co-published with OC Media, here.]

Preferences for the gender of children has a long history around the world and Georgia is no exception. CRRC-Georgia examines how attitudes have changed over the last decade.

In Georgia, having a boy has traditionally been desirable as sons are often considered the main successors in the family line, and they stay at home to take care of their parents as they age in contrast to women who traditionally move in with their husband’s family.

Preferences for sons are manifested in sex-selective abortion. Sex at birth ratios have declined in recent years in Georgia, suggesting lower sex-selective abortion rates. This is also reflected in new data from the 2019 Caucasus Barometer survey that shows that there has been a large decline in son preference in Georgia.

Still, a third of the public prefers having a boy to a girl.

In the 2010 Caucasus Barometer survey, a plurality of families in Georgia said they preferred having a son to a daughter.  The 2019 Caucasus Barometer shows that the preference for boys has dropped by 15 percentage points.

The percentage of those who say that the gender of their child does not matter has increased from 44% to 58%. Even though there is a change in preferences, almost a third of the population (31%) still report they would prefer a boy if a family has only one child.

Note: Answer options Don’t know and Refuse to answer are not presented on the chart above as they made up less than 3% of responses.

To understand people’s preferences for the gender of a child, further analysis of CB 2019 was conducted. The analysis shows that sex, age, and settlement type are associated with attitudes. Women are more likely to prefer having a daughter if there is only one child in a family than men. They are also more likely to report that gender does not matter than men. Correspondingly, women are less likely to report a son preference. People older than 55 are more likely to report preferring a daughter and less likely to name does not matter than people of 18-35 age group. People in urban areas are more likely to report daughter and less likely son than people in rural settlements. People in urban areas aside from Tbilisi are more likely say it does not matter compared with rural people.




Note: On the above chart, base variables for each category are as follows: male, 18-34 age group, Rural, Georgian ethnicity, and higher than secondary education. The wealth index is calculated regarding the items household owns.

Since 2010 the preference for having a son has dropped by 15 percentage points, and the share of those for whom the gender does not matter has also increased considerably. However, twice as many people prefer boys to girls and a third of the population prefers a boy. Son preferences are weaker among women, urban residents, and older people.

Note: The above analysis is based on a multinomial logistic regression analysis, where the dependent variable is the preferred gender of a child if a family has one child. The independent variables are gender, age group, ethnicity, settlement type, education, and wealth. The data used in the blog is available here. Replication code of the above data analysis is available here.

This article was written by Anano Kipiani and Kristina Vacharadze. Anano is a policy analyst at CRRC Georgia. Kristina is the Programs Director. The survey question used in this blog around gender preferences was funded by the United National Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA). The views presented in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of CRRC Georgia, UNFPA, or any related entity.

Sex selective abortion is likely less common in Georgia than previously thought

[This blog post was co-published with Eurasianet. The views presented in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of CRRC-Georgia.]

Sex-selective abortion in Georgia is a topic that has caught international attention. From an Economist article published in September 2013 to a 2015 UN report, Georgia tends to be portrayed as having one of the worst sex-selective abortion problems in the world. Closer inspection of the data, however, suggests the issue may be blown out of proportion.

The first study to draw attention to the sex-selective abortion issue in Georgia was published in 2013 in the journal International Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, and relied on statistics compiled by the World Health Organization. The authors found a sex-at-birth ratio of 121 boys for every 100 girls born in Georgia from 2005-2009. That number suggested there was a problem: one of the most common estimates of the natural sex-at-birth ratio is 105 boys for every 100 girls, or 95.2 girls for every 100 boys. Any difference between the natural and observed ratios in favor of boys is generally thought to be an proxy for sex selective abortion.

The study suggested that Georgia had one of the largest sex selective abortion problems in the world.

However, a missing data issue, a rounding error, and an anomalous sex at birth ratio in 2008, in the original study drove up the reported sex at birth ratio in Georgia. In the article, the sex at birth ratio between 2005 and 2009 is actually the average of the ratios in 2005 and 2008.  Martin McKee, one of the co-authors of the study stated, "The figure of 121 boys to 100 girls in 2005-2009 was calculated on the basis of the data submitted to the WHO at the time, from which several years were missing."

The missing data had a very large effect on the results of the study. In 2008, the ratio of boys to girls born in Georgia was exceptionally high at 128 boys born for every 100 girls. In 2005, 113 boys were born for every 100 girls, another high year for Georgia. Using these two years leads to an average of 120 boys born for every 100 girls between 2005 and 2009.

Notably, when asked about the discrepancy between the article reported 121 boys and the 120 boys to 100 girls ratio in the data, McKee acknowledged, “A very small rounding error crept in.”

With the full data between 2005 and 2009, however, the average sex at birth ratio drops to 113 boys for every 100 girls, rather than 120 – about half the reported deviation from the natural rate.

On top of the missing data, the fact that 2008’s sex at birth ratio is an outlier further exaggerates the reported magnitude of sex selective abortion in Georgia. If between 2005 and 2009, the average ratio was 113 boys for every 100 girls, the average ratio for the same period excluding 2008 is 110 boys for every 100 girls. That is to say, by excluding 2008, there were 5 excess boys born for every 100 girls rather than 8.

To flip the statistic around by looking at the ratio of girls born for every 100 boys, the average between 2005 and 2009 was 88 including 2008 and 91 when excluding it.  Translating this into the number of missing girls by subtracting the number of girls expected from the number born according to official data, suggests 6.74 missing girls for every 100 boys born when including the 2008 data. Without 2008, this drops to 4.20.

The exact causes of the situation recorded in 2008 are unknown. Although a higher than natural sex at birth ratio favoring boys is often explained by sex selective abortions and infanticide, comparing an estimate of the number of missing girls to the number of abortions over time suggests that some other factor may be at work.

Dividing the number of missing girls by the number of abortions in a year provides an estimate of the share of abortions that would need to be sex selective for it to explain the sex at birth imbalance. These calculations would suggest that sex selective abortion increased from 6% of all registered abortions in 2007 to 24% in 2008.

The calculations suggest one of three things: there was a dramatic increase in sex selective abortions in 2008, the number of unregistered abortions dramatically increased and they were also predominantly sex selective, or something else was driving the anomalous sex at birth ratio.

In the other category, many possible explanations exist. Notably, given the often poor state of data collection at the municipal level in Georgia, where births are recorded, recording error could explain the discrepancy.

The data alone cannot tell us whether 2008 saw a dramatic increase in the number of sex selective abortions or something else drove the anomalous sex at birth ratio. What is clear is that Georgia’s problem with sex-selective abortion is smaller than often portrayed.

That isn’t to say it is not a problem. In 2015, there were still about 4 missing girls for every 100 boys born.

Understanding the magnitude of the problem though is a first step towards addressing it.

Dustin Gilbreath is a Policy Analyst at CRRC-Georgia. He co-edits the organization’s blog Social Science in the Caucasus. 

To view the data used to calculate the figures used in this article, click here.

Abortion Rates in Azerbaijan

The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines abortion as a “termination of a pregnancy after, accompanied by, resulting in, or closely followed by the death of the embryo or fetus.” According to the United Nations' publication, World Abortion Policies, 2011, by 2009 roughly 97% of countries in the world had made abortion legal to save a woman’s life. The legal grounds and regulations on the issue of abortion vary from country to country. World Abortion Policies data from 2011 distinguishes seven main grounds for the permission of abortion: (1) to save a woman’s life, (2) to preserve a woman’s physical health, (3) to preserve a woman’s mental health, (4) in case of rape or incest, (5) because of fetal impairment, (6) for economic or social reasons, and (7) upon request.

The issue of abortion is complicated in Azerbaijan. Results from the Caucasus Barometer 2013 (CB) show that 36% of Azerbaijanis think that having an abortion can never be justified. This is lower than 62% of Georgians and 46% of Armenians who say the same. Notably, 20% of the population of Azerbaijan in 2013 did not know whether having an abortion should be justified or not, and 10% refused to answer – much higher number than in the other two countries.

According to the UN World Abortion Policies data from 2013, Azerbaijan has the lowest rate of abortion among the three South Caucasus Republics. The rate is 11.4 per thousand women aged 15-44, whereas it is 16.9 per thousand in Armenia and 26.5 per thousand in Georgia. The State Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan's (AzStat) data shows similar results – 11.5 per thousand women aged 15-49 (in 2012). However, according to AzStat the abortion rate in Azerbaijan has been steadily rising from 7.8 per thousand in 2000 to 11.5 per thousand in 2012 (this increase can be partially attributed to better reporting procedures introduced in the 2000s, however, the anecdotal evidence still suggests that not all cases are registered and reported). Moreover, the highest percentage of women having an abortion is among those who are 25-29 years old and 30-34 years old (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Percentage of abortions among different age groups in Azerbaijan (2012).

Source: http://www.stat.gov.az/source/healthcare/indexen.php

Azerbaijan has the lowest abortion rate among the three South Caucasus Republics and it has the highest fertility rate. According to the World Abortion Policies 2013, Azerbaijan has 2.1 births per woman, followed by 1.7 births per woman in Armenia and 1.5 births per woman in Georgia.

When asked about the ideal number of children per family, about 22% of Azerbaijanis said “whatever number God will give us”, whereas in Armenia and Georgia 1% and 9%, respectively, said the same. Moreover, Azerbaijanis are more likely to desire more children than in Armenia and Georgia. In Azerbaijan, fewer people say they want one or two children, and 36% consider four or more children to be ideal.

If you are interested in reproductive health and family planning, we encourage you to access more Caucasus Barometer data here. You might also find statistics from the State Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan and the United Nations World Abortion Policies data useful.

By Aynur Ramazanova

Abortion rates in the South Caucasus among the highest in the world

Last month we wrote a blog post on gender imbalance in the South Caucasus showing that there is an abnormal high number of boys being born in the region. Several comments were posted on the blog site that brought attention to abortion rates in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.

Prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, induced abortion was used as a means of fertility control due to the lack of effective contraception methods. According to the Alan Guttmacher Institute and the World Health Organization, the number of induced abortions worldwide started decreasing in the mid 1990s and the most dramatic decline occurred in Eastern Europe. In the South Caucasus, however, abortion rates remain high.

Data show that the South Caucasus countries have among the highest abortion rates in the world. The official number of induced abortions is not extremely high but this statistics should also not be considered completely reliable due to underreporting. According to UN data from 2004-2005 there are nine abortions per 1 000 women of reproductive age (15-49 years) in Azerbaijan, 13.9 Armenia and 19.1 in Georgia. This can be compared to for example 1.3 in Austria and 5.7 in Croatia. The most alarming numbers can be found in Russia though with more than 50 abortions per 1 000 women of reproductive age. Nevertheless, data from other sources present higher abortion rates for the South Caucasus. The Reproductive Health Surveys from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and a Demographic Health Survey in Armenia (both from 2005) look at total abortion rates, which is the expected average number of abortion a woman will have during her reproductive years. The total abortion rate is 1.8 abortions per woman in Armenia, 3.2 in Azerbaijan and 3.7 in Georgia. Thereby the abortion rates in Georgia are the highest in the former Soviet Union and are estimated to be among the highest in the world.

It is being argued that the reason for the high abortion rates in the South Caucasus is the lack of modern contraception. The prevalence of modern contraception methods (the percentage of women of reproductive age, married or in union, currently using contraception) was, according to UN statistics, 13 percent in Azerbaijan in 2006, which is among the lowest of the former Soviet Union countries and below most other countries in the world. As a point of comparison, the prevalence in the U.S. was 68 percent in 2002.

High abortion rates have consequences both for the individual woman and for the society as a whole. Abortions bring health risks, especially in countries such as Georgia where the government’s spending on health care is low and most people do not have access to adequate health care. Some abortions take place outside of medical facilities, leading to complications and in some cases even deaths. Even in cases of legal abortions there is a risk of post-abortion medical problems when the quality of medical service is low. According to a survey carried out by the Open Society Institute’s Network Public Health Programs, half of all Georgian women consider abortion a health risk. Moreover, according to data from the UN, the fertility rates in the South Caucasus are among the lowest in the world. In Azerbaijan, the fertility rate is 1.82, in Georgia 1.41 and in Armenia 1.39 (the world average is 2.55). It means for example that the Georgian population is expected to decrease from 4.2 million in 2010 to 3.3 million in 2050. You can read more about the implications of low fertility rates on the UN Population Division website.

To return to the previous blog post on gender imbalance, the societies’ preference for boys is nothing new but the practice of selective induced abortion has put this preference into practice. The distorted sex ratios in the South Caucasus question the explanation that high abortion rates are a matter of lack of access to contraception methods. We have found little up-to-date information on this and would be grateful if anyone can post links with references to relevant research on abortion in the South Caucasus.

Reproductive Health in the Caucasus

According to a 1999 Reproductive Health Survey, Georgia has the highest abortion rates in the former Soviet Union (possibly in the world, though I haven't checked). In Georgia there are 3.7 abortions per woman (per life).

Other 2001 data suggests that Azerbaijan follows closely and has 3.2 abortions per woman (Turkey: 0,7). In data from 2000, Armenia has 2.6 abortions.

As a comparison, the same figures for Russia are 1,5, for the US 0,7.

In the three South Caucasus countries, rates of modern contraception are less wide-spread than in any other comparable country. One consultant working in the field pointed out that in some countries, there is an incentive for the medical community to perform abortions since they are paid for them -- whereas they don't get paid for promoting methods of contraception.

The data could allow comparisons of the impact of incentives, versus culture, versus historical development. (Although it should be pointed out that such data needs to be screened for bias, survey problems.)

New data for Georgia, from a 2005 Reproductive Health Survey, is to be released later in December 2006.

Source: www.prcdc.org/CWestoff.ppt