Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Do Armenians and Georgians support protests?

Note: This article first appeared on the Caucasus Data Blog, a joint effort of CRRC-Georgia and OC Media. This post was written by Tamar Uzunashvili, a Junior Fellow at CRRC Georgia. The views expressed in this post do not necessarily reflect the views of CRRC Georgia or any related entity.

A regression analysis of 2024 data demonstrates that attitudes vary among different social and demographic groups.

Gender and education were significant predictors of supporting protest in Armenia. Men were more likely than women to have a positive attitude towards participating in protests by 16 percentage points.

People with tertiary education were 22 percentage points more likely to support protest participation compared to those with secondary or lower education, and 10 percentage points more likely to support protests than individuals with secondary technical education.

People in Yerevan were more likely to support participation in a protest than people who live in rural or urban areas, where the probability of supporting protests was almost equal.

In Armenia, younger people (18–34) were more likely to support protests than older people (55+).

Wealth, partisanship, and employment did not predict attitudes in Armenia.

In Georgia, the data shows that people were more likely to support protests than oppose them across settlement types. At the same time, individuals who live in the capital were more likely to have positive attitudes toward protests than people in other urban or rural areas.

The data also varied across age groups, with young people (18–34) being substantially more likely to support protests than those who are 55 and older.

Those who support Georgian Dream were less likely to have a positive attitude toward protests than individuals who do not support any political party. People who support the opposition and those who refused to report which party they support had similar attitudes to individuals who did not support any party.

Employment was also a factor, with employed individuals more likely to support protest participation than those who were not employed.

Gender and wealth were not associated with attitudes towards protests in Georgia.

Support for protests is generally high in both Georgia and Armenia, though on the decline in Armenia. Across both countries, younger people are more inclined to support protests.

The analysis in this article makes use of logistic regression analysis. The analysis includes gender (male and female), settlement type (capital, urban, and rural), age group (18–34, 35–54, and 55+), education (secondary and lower, secondary technical, and higher than secondary), a wealth index (0–13), employment (employed and unemployed) and partisanship (no party, Georgian Dream, opposition, and refused to answer) as predictor variables.

Tuesday, May 06, 2025

Increasing optimism for the future in Armenia and Georgia

Since the Velvet Revolution, Armenians across a wide cross-section of society have become increasingly more optimistic about their country’s future. In comparison, Georgians have seen only a modest increase in optimism over the time period, with the uptick concentrated in urban areas and among those employed.

Both Armenia and Georgia have experienced significant political, economic, and social changes over the last decade. In Armenia, the changes have coincided with more Armenians believing that eventually everything will be fine, while in Georgia, there has been a largely steady though slightly upward trend, according to the Caucasus Barometer survey.

In 2017, nearly half of the Armenian population (46%) believed that the situation in their country would never improve. In contrast, more people in Georgia viewed their country’s future positively (68%).

In 2019, optimism in the Armenian population toward the future roughly doubled (80%), surpassing the share with an optimistic outlook in Georgia (69%).  This change took place following Armenia’s Velvet Revolution, which brought Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to power.

Between 2019 and 2024, Georgians’ optimism about the future increased by six percentage points, coming to match the share of optimism in Armenia.

These changes in attitudes varied by social and demographic variables.

In Armenia, after the initial increase in optimism following the Velvet Revolution, those aged 35–54 gradually became less optimistic, while other age groups’ attitudes did not change significantly.

In Georgia, optimism rose among people 54 and under between 2019 and 2021, while it rose for older people between 2021 and 2024.

In Armenia, men became less optimistic about the future over time, while in Georgia, both men and women have gradually become more optimistic.

The data shows consistent trends over time in the Georgian population regarding people’s perceptions of their country’s future based on their level of education. However, Georgians with a higher education tend to have a more positive outlook on the country’s future compared to those with a secondary technical education or lower education levels.

In contrast, opinions among Armenians about their country’s future do not fluctuate substantially based on level of education.

Data from Georgia indicates that employed individuals are more optimistic about the country’s future than those who are not working. For example, in 2024, approximately 82% of employed people believed that everything would eventually be fine in Georgia, compared to 70% of people who were not working.

In Armenia, however, working people’s attitudes have declined slightly over time.

The data also shows that residents of rural areas in Georgia view the country’s future more negatively than those living in the capital. Attitudes became more positive between 2019 and 2024 for people in Tbilisi and rose substantially in other urban areas (by 19 percentage points) between 2021 and 2024.

In contrast, in Armenia, optimism is lowest in Yerevan, where attitudes became more negative between 2021 and 2024. Otherwise, attitudes have largely been stable across settlement types.

In 2024, levels of optimism for the future were quite similar in Armenia and Georgia, with optimism having increased substantially in Armenia, following the country’s Velvet Revolution and rising modestly in Georgia. In Armenia, increases in optimism were wide-spread across society, while in Georgia recent changes seem concentrated in urban areas and among those employed.

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Armenians and Georgians lack confidence in their ability to influence politics

Note: This article first appeared on the Caucasus Data Blog, a joint effort of CRRC-Georgia and OC Media. This article was written by Melor Shengelia, a researcher at CRRC Georgia. The views presented in this article are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of CRRC Georgia.

A statistical model demonstrates that people in Georgia living in urban areas outside of Tbilisi were more likely to agree than disagree with the statement, ‘Sometimes politics and government seem so complicated that a person like me can’t really understand what’s going on’.

Younger people aged 18–34 were less likely to agree with this statement compared to people from older age groups.

The model also suggests that in Georgia, women were more likely to agree that politics were too complicated to understand compared to men.

Education was also a significant predictor of whether someone agreed or disagreed with the statement. People with a higher education were less likely to agree and more likely to disagree with this opinion compared to people with a lower education level.

Ethnic Georgians were also more prone to disagree with this statement compared to ethnic minorities.

In Armenia, however, demographic variables were not statistically significant predictors of feelings towards how complicated politics are.

Data related to whether people felt they had a say in what their government does similarly showed that people in both Armenia and Georgia were not confident in their ability to influence politics.

In Armenia, 64% of the public agreed that they did not have any say in the government’s actions. In Georgia, on the other hand, less, albeit half (52%) of the public, believed they lacked a say and influence in what their government does.

Regression analysis demonstrates that in both Armenia and Georgia, people who lived in rural areas were less likely to agree with the above statement compared to people from the capitals.

In Armenia, older people were more likely to agree with the statement compared to people aged 18–34. This variable was not a significant predictor in Georgia.

Additionally, while gender, education level, employment status, ethnicity, and ownership of durable goods (a common proxy for wealth) were included in the regression, none were statistically significant predictors in either country.

In both countries, people tended to lack confidence in their influence on politics while also feeling indifferent about their role in political life. While this trend was observed in both Armenia and Georgia, people in Armenia were significantly less willing to participate in politics and were less likely to perceive their role as important in political processes.

Note: The results presented in this article came from a regression model of the Caucasus Barometer 2024 dataset. The regressions included the following variables: sex (male or female), age group (18–34, 35–54, 55+), settlement type (capital, urban, rural), ethnic group (ethnic majority or ethnic minority), educational attainment (secondary or lower, secondary technical, higher than secondary), employment (working, not working), and wealth (ownership of 13 different durable goods, a common proxy for wealth).

Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Georgians overwhelming see gender equality as important to country’s future success

Note: This article first appeared on the Caucasus Data Blog, a joint effort of CRRC-Georgia and OC Media. This article was written by Nino Lobzhanidze, a Junior Researcher at CRRC Georgia. The views presented in this article are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of CRRC Georgia, UN Women, or any related entity.

A recent UN Women and CRRC Georgia study has found that the vast majority of Georgians find it important to work towards a more equal society.

Overall, 65% of the public agreed with all nine of the above statements. A regression analysis suggests that gender was the only statistically significant predictor of whether a person agreed with all of the statements or not, with 73% of women agreeing with all nine statements compared to 56% of men, controlling for other factors. The data showed no significant differences on this account when it came to age, ethnicity, settlement type, education level, or employment status.

It is clear that a large majority of the public agrees that improving women’s rights is important for the country’s future, including the importance of equal pay and the fair distribution of household labour. Perhaps unsurprisingly, women were more likely to support all of these things than men, but still, a clear majority of both men and women believe these issues are important to Georgia’s future.

The regression analysis used in this article included the following variables:  age (16–24, 25–34, 35–44, 45–54, 55+); sex (male or female); settlement type (Tbilisi, other urban, rural); education level (secondary or lower; vocational; and completed or uncompleted higher education); ethnicity (ethnic Georgian or ethnic minority); and employment status (employed or not working).

Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Blog | Most Georgians believe personal freedoms do not extend to choices around sex

Note: This article first appeared on the Caucasus Data Blog, a joint effort of CRRC-Georgia and OC Media.  This article was written by Salome Dolidze and Zachary Fabos, researchers at CRRC Georgia. The views expressed in the article are the authors’ alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of UN Women, CRRC Georgia, or any related entity.

Georgians felt similarly when asked about the freedom to choose whom they marry — overall, 75% claimed to have a lot of influence in choosing whom they marry.

Again, Georgians agreed that most men have more influence in this choice than most women. However, a majority (69%) still believed most women have a lot of influence in deciding whom to marry.

Broken down by gender, 68% of women believed they have a lot of influence in deciding whom to marry, compared to 83% of men.

Opinion differed among Georgians when asked about choices regarding sex before marriage and having more than one sexual partner in one’s lifetime.

When asked if it was justifiable for people to have a sexual relationship before marriage and to have several sexual partners in one’s lifetime, Georgians generally stated that it was somewhat more justifiable for men to do so compared to women. A slight majority (51%) of Georgians believed it was justifiable for men to have a sexual relationship before marriage, compared to 30% believing the same for women. Although most Georgians believed it was unjustifiable for both men and women to have several sexual partners in their lifetime, it was perceived as more justifiable for men by 12 percentage points, compared to women.

In addition, individuals 35 and older, those living outside Tbilisi, and those who had higher education were more likely to say that it was not at all justifiable for women to have sexual relationships before marriage than younger people, residents of Tbilisi, and ethnic Georgians.

Likewise, people living outside Tbilisi and those aged 55 and over were more likely to say that it was not at all justifiable for women to have several sexual partners in their lifetime than people living in the capital and younger people.

Tuesday, April 08, 2025

Georgians largely hold Russia and Putin responsible for the war in Ukraine

Note: This article first appeared on the Caucasus Data Blog, a joint effort of CRRC-Georgia and OC Media. This article was written by Eto Gagunashvili, a researcher at CRRC Georgia. The views presented in this article are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of CRRC Georgia.

Tuesday, April 01, 2025

Is quality education in Georgia really accessible for all?

Note: This article first appeared on the Caucasus Data Blog, a joint effort of CRRC-Georgia and OC Media. It was written by Salome Dolidze and Kristine Vacharadze. The views expressed in the article are the authors’ alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of CRRC Georgia, or any related entity.