New Year’s twice, even if you don’t believe in Santa

[This piece originally appeared in Georgian on Liberali, here]

December. Cold. Christmas decorations in the streets. New Year. Champagne. Satsivi and Gozinaki. Presents. Santa Claus. December 25. Or January 6? Then New Year’s once again, but the old one. 2017 resolutions and the wish on New Year’s Eve that is bound to come true.

What are the population of Georgia’s New Year’s plans? CRRC-Georgia asked on December 1-13 in a phone survey of adults in Georgia. Unsurprisingly, people in Georgia follow established traditions. A large majority (73%) plan to ring in the New Year at home. Nine per cent more will meet it in a friend’s or relative’s home. Meeting the New Year outside in the street or in a restaurant and café is not yet common, and only one per cent of Georgians plan to. Another 15% had not decided in the first half of December where they would celebrate the New Year.

Since a large majority of people celebrate New Year’s at home, holiday decorations are important. Only 4% of the population does not plan to have a Christmas tree. A large majority (76%) will have an artificial tree and about one tenth (13%) a natural tree. Meanwhile, 59% of people also plan to have Chichilaki at home.

Traditionally, one of the main components of New Year’s celebrations is the New Year’s feast. Of the dishes from the New Year’s table, over one third (38%) of Georgia’s adult population singles out Satsivi, about a fourth (24%) Gozinaki and about one tenth (9%) fried suckling pig as their favorite.

For many, New Year’s is associated with presents. About two thirds of Georgia’s population (62%) plan to buy presents for family members. Some people used to believe or still believe that presents come from Santa (Tovlis Babu). It appears that about one third of Georgia’s adult population believed in Santa through the age of 10. However, almost one fourth (24%) never believed in Santa. Despite this, the magic of New Year’s Eve is not lost on the majority. Two thirds of the Georgian population (66%) have made a wish on New Year’s.

New Year’s, with its feast, Christmas tree and fireworks, is celebrated twice in Georgia. An absolute majority of people (88%) say they celebrate the Old New Year as well as well as the new one. People also seem to be interested in the Chinese calendar and closely follow which animal is the symbol of the coming year. A majority of Georgians (68%) plan to or already have bought a rooster souvenir for 2017, the year of the rooster.

Just as New Year’s has two days, so too does Christmas – the latter is celebrated on different dates by different Christian churches. About two thirds of the Georgian population (64%) believes Christmas should be celebrated on January 7. However, about one tenth of people (12%) say Christmas in Georgia should be celebrated on December 25. At the same time, not so small a share of the Georgian population (18%) reports that Christmas, like New Year’s, should be celebrated on both days.

Having holidays twice is not so uncommon in Georgia after all.

Electoral forensics on the 2016 parliamentary elections

In order to help monitor the fidelity of the October 2016 parliamentary election results, CRRC-Georgia has carried out quantitative analysis of election-related statistics within the auspices of the Detecting Election Fraud through Data Analysis (DEFDA) project. Within the project we used methods from the field of election forensics. Election forensics is a field in political science that attempts to identify election day issues through looking at statistical patterns in election returns. This blog post reports the results of our analysis of the 2016 proportional election results. The full report of the analysis is available here.

Our analysis suggests that the results of the 2016 elections were roughly equivalent to the 2012 proportional list elections.

Before going further into the results, two caveats and a note on methods are needed. To start with the two caveats:

• Results are probabilistic. A test may return a statistically anomalous result, and this suggests that a given result is highly unlikely to have occurred by chance alone. The way in which we calculate the test statistics is likely to provide 1 false positive for every 100 tests performed.
• If a test does suggest a statistical anomaly, it does not necessarily mean that election-related malfeasance caused the result, but that it may have. Statistical anomalies can be caused by benign activities such as strategic voting or divergent voting patterns within a region. Electoral malfeasance does often cause a positive test result, however. Hence, substantive knowledge and judgment of each positive test are required to determine whether malfeasance actually did occur.

When it comes to methods, to be frank, they are relatively complex. Rather than dive into the details here, we recommend that interested readers see Hicken and Mebane, 2015, here. Below we present the results of the following election forensics tests:

• Mean of second digit in turnout;
• Skew of turnout;
• Kurtosis of turnout;
• Means of the final digit in turnout;
• Frequency of zeros and fives in the final digit in turnout;
• Unimodality test of turnout distribution.

Results

In 2016, three of the six tests were set off:

By comparison, in 2012 two of six tests were also set off. However, one test – of the second digit mean – was exceptionally close to being set off. Due to the nature of the method – bootstrapping uses resampling with replacement – this test just as well could have been set off if run again.

Given the borderline nature of the 2012 tests, providing a conclusive comparison of the two elections is somewhat difficult. However, since the test results are roughly equivalent, the tests are indicative rather than definitive, and the elections by most accounts have been considered broadly free and fair, despite having clear issues, and the 2012 elections were considered to be broadly free and fair, despite also having clear issues, we consider the 2016 election results to also be broadly free and fair.
For more on the subject, take a look at our final report for the DEFDA project, available here.

Note: The DEFDA project is funded by the Embassy of the United States of America in Georgia, however, none of the views expressed in the above blog post represent the views of the US Embassy in Georgia or any related US Government entity.

Number of logical inconsistencies in 2016 election protocols decline

Following the 2016 parliamentary elections, a number of politicians questioned the results based on logical inconsistencies on election protocols. Some of the election protocols, which summarize election results for individual voting stations, reported that more voters had come to the polls than actually cast ballots while others reported that more votes had been cast than voters came to the polling station.  While both did happen, the Central Election Commission has made dramatic improvements compared to Georgia’s 2012 parliamentary elections.

In the 2012 parliamentary elections, according to an analysis of data the Central Election Commission provided, in the proportional list elections alone there were over 30,000 more voters that came to the polls than cast ballots. In 2016, there were less than 3000 such voters – a clear improvement.

Not only were there more voters than votes in many precincts – there were more votes cast than voters that came to the polls, again according to the official record. In the 2012 parliamentary elections, there were 696 more votes than signatures for those votes. By comparison, in 2016 there were 76 – again a clear improvement.

A third logical inconsistency present in the data is declining turnout. In the 2012 elections, in 8 precincts, there were more votes at 12PM than at 5PM. That is to say that the precincts recorded declining turnout. In 2016, by contrast, only one precinct reported declining turnout, again, a clear improvement.

While the CEC has clearly improved its recording of the vote in 2016, and small mismatches are bound to happen, any voter may reasonably ask themselves – if the CEC cannot make election protocols add up, how do I know my vote counted? Thus, we strongly recommend that the CEC make efforts to minimize the number of logical inconsistencies in future elections. Some recommendations on how the CEC might do so are available in our report on the 2016 elections.

Note: The DEFDA project is funded by the Embassy of the United States of America in Georgia, however, none of the views expressed in the above blog post represent the views of the US Embassy in Georgia or any related US Government entity.

Georgians and other ethnic groups: understanding (in)tolerance (Part 3)

As the first blog post in this series highlighted, approval by Georgians for doing business with members of other ethnic groups is, overall, declining. When it comes to Georgian women marrying men of other ethnicities, Georgians are even less approving. These latter attitudes vary by settlement type, age, and level of education. As in the previous blog posts in this series, only the answers of ethnic Georgians are presented in this blog post.

Georgians living in the capital report the highest approval of Georgian women marrying men of other ethnicities. On average, there is a 14 percentage point difference between the population of the capital and rural settlements. The biggest gap is with Americans (19%): 54% of Georgians in Tbilisi approve of Georgian women marrying Americans, while only 35% of the rural population say the same. The gap is smallest with Russians: 55% in the capital and 45% in rural settlements approve of Georgian women marrying Russians.

Note: Only shares of those answering “Approve” are presented on the charts in this blog post. 

Differences between the answers of people of different ages are also noteworthy, though the gaps are smaller. Overall, younger people show greater approval of Georgian women marrying foreigners. The biggest gap is observed in respect to marrying Americans (14%): while 50% of young people 18 to 35 approve of Georgian women marrying Americans, only 36% of older people (56+) say the same.

Differences by education level are also informative. The higher a person’s level of education, the more s/he tends to approve of Georgian women marrying men of other ethnicities. On average, there is a ten percentage point gap between people with secondary or lower education and those with tertiary education. As with settlement types and age groups, the largest gap is observed in relation to Americans. Only 37% of people with secondary or lower education approve of Georgian women marrying Americans, while 51% of people with tertiary education report the same.

Approval by Georgians of Georgian women marrying men of other ethnicities varies by settlement type, education, and, to a lesser extent, by age. Interestingly, the gaps between the groups are consistently greatest when it comes to (dis)approval of Georgian women marrying Americans.

To take a deeper look at the data used in this blog post, try out our online data analysis tool.

Georgians and other ethnic groups: understanding (in)tolerance (Part 2)

In the previous blog post, we saw that Georgians report approval of doing business with representatives of other ethnic groups less than in the past. Based on CRRC’s 2015 Caucasus Barometer data, this blog post looks at how (dis)approval differs for Georgians of different ages, and living in different settlement types. 

People living in rural settlements report disapproval of business relations with representatives of the other ethnic groups asked about more often than residents of the capital and other urban settlements. On average, 56% of rural residents report approval of doing business with the 11 other ethnicities asked about over time, while the average for Tbilisi residents is 78%. 

Note: Only the answers of those answering “Approve” are shown on the charts in this blog post. 

The highest reported levels of approval of doing business with foreigners in rural settlements was with Russians and Ukrainians, both at 69%. By comparison, in the capital, 83% and 89% approved of doing business with Russians and Ukrainians, respectively. The largest differences between the attitudes of the population of rural settlements and the capital are when it comes to Jews and Kurds/Yezidis, with approximately 30 percentage point gaps. 

Differences in the attitudes by age are also noteworthy, though the gaps are not as large as in the case of settlement types. On average, there is a 10 percentage point difference between the youngest (18-35) and the oldest group (56+). Georgians who are 56 and older show less approval of doing business with non-Georgians asked about, with the largest difference in the case of Americans: 79% of 18 to 35 year olds approve of doing business with them, while only 61% of people older than 56 say the same. The gap is almost the same in the case of Ukrainians. 

Young Georgians and those living in the capital and other urban settlements approve of doing business with people of other ethnicities more than older Georgians and those living in rural settlements. In the next blog post in this series, we present findings on who approves of Georgian women marrying men of other ethnicities. 

Explore more about attitudes towards non-Georgians in Georgia here.