Georgians are becoming less satisfied with the government’s COVID response

Note: This article first appeared on the Caucasus Data Blog, a joint effort of CRRC Georgia and OC Media. It was written by Natia Liluashvili, a junior fellow at CRRC-Georgia. The views presented in the article are of the author alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of CRRC Georgia, or any related entity.

In the two years since the first coronavirus case was detected in Georgia, roughly 1.6 million people have caught COVID-19 in the country, and more than 1 in 235 people have died due to the virus.

The most recent wave caused by the Omicron variant resulted in over 5% of the country having an active case of COVID-19 at the same time.

During this wave, the government abolished the green passport requirement and lifted most restrictions on businesses. This approach stands in contrast to the government’s approach at the start of the pandemic, which included lockdown policies. But what does the public think of how the government has handled the pandemic?

In December 2020, Georgia was in partial lockdown. According to data from the 2020 NDI/CRRC survey, 61% of the public thought the government handled the pandemic well or very well, while 33% rated the government’s handling of the pandemic negatively.

In February 2021, the number of people who positively assessed the management of the pandemic increased to 68%, while only 28% thought that they did a bad job. Notably, this survey took place during the period in which Giorgi Gakharia, Georgia’s former prime minister, withdrew from politics.

Unlike his predecessor, Irakli Garibashvili began to open up the country. At the same time, Georgia started to provide vaccines. Against this background, in July 2021, positive attitudes towards the government’s handling of the pandemic declined to 52%.

In December 2021, the number of daily confirmed cases increased dramatically, which was also reflected in the mortality rate. According to the latest NDI data, half the population (50%) think that the government was handling the pandemic well, with negative attitudes towards the government’s handling of the pandemic increasing from 36% to 43%.

A regression analysis of the December 2021 data shows that the attitudes towards government policies differ significantly by party preference, ethnicity, age group, and settlement type.

People in rural areas have more positive attitudes towards the government’s handling of the pandemic than people in urban areas. Compared to the elderly, young people are more likely to think that the government is handling the COVID-19 pandemic well. Ethnic Georgians also hold less favourable attitudes than ethnic minorities, while Georgian Dream supporters are substantially more positive about the government’s policy than those who support the opposition or no party at all.

Note: This chart was generated from a regression model. The model includes gender (male, female), age group (18–34, 35–54, 55+), settlement type (capital, urban, rural), education (secondary or lower, secondary technical, tertiary), household composition in terms of having children under 12 (have children under 12, do not have children under 12), household composition in terms of having members over 60 (have members over 60, do not have members over 60),  household composition in terms of having members with severe chronic disease (have member with serious chronic disease, do not have member with serious chronic disease), ethnicity (Georgian, ethnic minority), party respondent names as closest to his/her views (Georgian Dream, opposition party, did not name a party (don’t know, refuse to answer, or no party affiliation)).

Even though the number of people who think that the Government is handling the pandemic well is slowly declining, it is high, especially in rural areas, among older people, and among ethnic minorities.

The data this article is based on is available here.

Georgians are becoming more accepting of premarital sex

Note: This article first appeared on the Caucasus Data Blog, a joint effort of CRRC Georgia and OC Media. It was written by Anano Kipiani, a policy analyst, and Kristina Vacharadze, programs director at CRRC Georgia. The views presented in the article are of the authors alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of CRRC Georgia, or any related entity.

New data shows people increasingly think that both women and men having pre-marital sex is acceptable, at least some of the time. The results come from the Knowledge of and Attitudes towards the European Union in Georgia survey, funded by the Europe Foundation and carried out by CRRC Georgia, 

According to the data, the public is significantly more likely to accept men having sex before marriage than to think it is acceptable for women to do the same. 

However, the gap is narrowing.

In 2013, there was a 28 percentage point gap in acceptance of men and women having pre-marital sex. In 2021, 53% of people said it is sometimes or always justified for men to have sex before marriage and 33% for women, a gap of 20 percentage points.

This stems from an increase in the share of people saying that women having pre-marital sex is acceptable, with the share saying it is acceptable for men changing little over the years. 

Note: Sometimes justified and always justified are combined in the chart above.

While attitudes remain conservative, the share of the public that thinks premarital sex is justified for both sexes has increased over the years. While 23% reported so in 2015, this figure went up to 37% by 2021. 

There was an 11 percentage point decline between 2015 and 2021 in the share of the public that thinks premarital sex is never justified for either men or women. Similarly, between 2019 and 2021, there was a decline of seven percentage points in the share that felt it was justified for men only.

Further analyses show that attitudes varied between a number of groups. 

Women were less likely to say that it is sometimes or always justified for only men to have pre-marital sex. In contrast, they were more likely to report that premarital sex is acceptable for both men and women. 

People older than 35 were less likely to say that premarital sex was justified for both men and women, and more likely to report that it is acceptable for men only or neither sex. 

People 55 and older were more likely to say that having sexual relations before marriage is never justified for either men or women and more likely to say it was justified for men only. 

People living in Tbilisi were significantly more likely to report that it is acceptable for men and women, and less likely to report neither or men only. Similarly, people in other urban areas were more likely to report that premarital sex was acceptable than people in rural areas, controlling for other factors. 

Ethnic minorities were significantly more likely to say that having sex before marriage was not acceptable for both men and women, and were less likely to report that it is sometimes or always justified. 

People without a higher education were less likely to report premarital sex was acceptable for both men and women.

While Georgian society remains conservative in regards to premarital sex for women and more liberal in regards to men, attitudes are changing, and more people are becoming accepting of women having premarital sex.

Who is informed about COVID-19 vaccination in Georgia?

Note: This article first appeared on the Caucasus Data Blog, a joint effort of CRRC Georgia and OC Media. It was written by Eka Jikidze, a junior fellow at CRRC Georgia. The views presented in the article are of the author alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Democratic Institute, CRRC Georgia, or any related entity.

Roughly half the population felt they had sufficient information about the vaccination process in July 2021. Data from the December 2021 CRRC and NDI survey suggests this share has increased, with the gains primarily stemming from people outside the capital, those without higher education, ethnic minorities, and people who do not support Georgian Dream.

The July 2021 CRRC and NDI survey suggested that 54% of Georgians felt they had enough information about the vaccination process. In December 2021, this share increased to 64%.

The data show that this increase is concentrated among people outside the capital, with lower levels of education, and among ethnic minorities. Specifically, there was an 11 percentage point increase in the share of people with enough information in urban areas aside from Tbilisi and a 14 percentage point increase in rural areas. By comparison, the change in Tbilisi is within the margin of error. 

There was also an increase in the share of people with secondary technical and secondary or lower education who said they had enough information about the vaccination process. There was a 10 percentage point increase in the share of people with enough information who have vocational education and a 15 percentage point increase among those that have a lower level of education. There was no significant change in how informed people felt they were among those with higher education.

Ethnic minorities also became more likely to be aware of the vaccination process, with an 18 percentage point increase in awareness among ethnic minorities compared with a nine percentage point increase among ethnic Georgians.

The data shows more Georgian Dream supporters said they have enough information about the vaccination process compared to opposition party supporters. That said, there was a 12 percentage point increase in the share of people with enough information among those who support opposition parties and those who refused to answer which party they support.  There was a nine percentage point increase among those who do not know which party they support.

In contrast to the above, there were no significant differences in terms of how access to information increased between men and women or among people of different ages.

The data this article is based on is available here.

Georgians split on whether country is democratic

Note: Note: This article first appeared on the Caucasus Data Blog, a joint effort of CRRC Georgia and OC Media. It was written by Givi Silagadze, a researcher at CRRC Georgia. The views presented in the article are the author's alone and do not necessarily represent the views of NDI, CRRC Georgia or any related entity.

There have been contrasting assertions from Georgian political parties regarding the state of democracy in the country and increasing international concerns about democratic backsliding in recent years. This stands in contrast to past years, when former US President George W. Bush famously described Georgia as a ‘beacon of liberty’, and the praise Georgia received when it had its first peaceful electoral handover of power in 2012. 

The newly released December 2021 NDI and CRRC Georgia survey suggests that public opinion mirrors general international and elite trends, with increasingly few citizens believing Georgia is a democracy, and a substantial partisan divide between the supporters of the ruling Georgian Dream party and the opposition. The data also show that few believe that Georgia ever was an example of democracy in the region.

At present, half of the Georgian public believes Georgia is not a democratic country, with only 39% believing it is. Additionally, one in 10 Georgians does not know whether Georgia is democracy at present. The public was more critical towards Georgia’s democratic standing only once during the past decade: in November 2019. This more critical assessment was measured in the aftermath of large-scale protests, and the failure to follow through on promised electoral reforms.

Regression analysis suggests men, young adults, people living in rural areas, ethnic minorities, and people living in wealthier households are more likely to think that Georgia is a democracy than women, older people, people living in urban areas, and people living in poorer households. 

Whether or not people think Georgia is a democracy is a heavily partisan matter. Supporters of the ruling party were more than three times more likely to think Georgia is a democracy (75%) than supporters of opposition parties (24%) and more than twice as likely than voters who had no partisan affiliation (32%).

The survey also asked about Georgia’s democratic standing relative to its neighbouring countries. A plurality of voters (34%) report that democracy in Georgia used to be a good example for neighbouring countries, but has ceased to be one in recent years. A quarter of the population (25%) thinks Georgian democracy has never been an example for neighbours, while another quarter (23%) believes democracy in Georgia is exemplary in relation to the region. A sixth (18%) of the population does not know which of the above statements comes closest to their views. In other words, 59% of the public thinks that Georgian democracy has ceased to be a good example for neighbouring countries (34%) or that it has never been an exemplary democracy in the first place (25%). 

Regression analysis suggests that a number of variables help predict the public’s thoughts on democracy in Georgia. People living in Tbilisi, people with technical education, and non-partisan voters are more likely to think that democracy in Georgia has never been exemplary for its neighbours than people living outside the capital, people with other levels of education, and partisan voters.

Freedom House scores from the 2000s and 2010s suggest that even though Georgia has never lagged behind in terms of the quality of democracy in its immediate neighbourhood, the quality of democracy a little further to the West has proven to be a more difficult challenge to meet.

Throughout most of the 2000s, Turkey, Ukraine, Bulgaria, and Romania registered significantly higher scores than Georgia. This holds true for the year 2006-2007 when Georgia received its highest Freedom House under the United National Movement’s rule.

In the 2010s, Georgia performed better than all neighbours it shares a land border with, including Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. Across the Black Sea, it has had a quality of freedom comparable to Moldova and Ukraine and has scored worse than Bulgaria and Romania.

This observation holds for 2014-2015 when Georgia registered the highest Freedom House score throughout the Georgian Dream's tenure  (2012-present).