Friday, September 05, 2008

Georgia Post-Conflict Phone Survey | may be a first glance?

Georgian IPResearch (first time we heard of them, actually) conducted a phone poll between Aug.25 and Sept.2. 450 respondents were questioned countrywide. While we have our strong reservations about these telephone polls (they are biased towards people with phones, picking up calls from strangers, and bored enough to chat), they may serve as a preliminary indication. Here are the results:

1. Was the international community active in stopping the Russian aggression?

Yes 73.3%
No 24%
NA 2.7%

2. Which state was the most active in stopping Russian aggression?

USA 64,2%
France 20,9%
Poland 4,9%
Baltic states 2,2%
Germany 1,6%
UK 1,1%
Ukraine 0,7%
None 1,3%
NA 3,1%

3. Which organization was the most active in stopping Russian aggression?
EU 26,7%
UN 17,6%
NATO 14%
CoE 3%
OSCE 3.1%
All 5.1%
None 4.0%
NA 26.2%

4. Which is the most positive politician in stopping Russian aggression?
Nicolas Sarkozy 35.6%
George W. Bush 17.8%
Condy Rice 12.0%
Angela Merkel 7.8%
John McCain 5.6%
Lech Kaczynski 4.2%
Bernanrd Kouchner 3.3%
Mat Bryza 1.8%
David Miliband 1.6%
Barack Obama 0.9%
Other 2.8%
None 1.3%
NA 5.3%

5. Which is the most friendly country for Georgia?
USA 72.0%
France 42.9%
Ukraine 20.9%
Germany 13.6%
Poland 12.0%
Baltic states 11.6%
UK 7.8%
Turkey 2.2%
Israel 0.7%
Azerbaijan 0.4%
Other 0.6%
None 1.6%
NA 8.9%

(Respondents were asked to name max. 2 states, therefore the total number exceeds 100%)

6. Do you think that the Georgian government could have avoided Russian aggression?

Yes 42.4%
No 46.7%
NA 10.9%

7. Will Georgia receive NATO MAP in the near future?
Yes 80.9%
No 6.9%
NA 12.2%

Perhaps the most interesting part is that more than 40% of respondents think that the Georgian government could have avoided the confrontation. This means that the country might very well be split, with a lot of people thinking that what happened was a big mistake. But as mentioned, we cannot vouch for the quality of this survey.

It will be interesting to examine whether indeed so many people are critical, and who precisely they are. We are planning to conduct our own survey in the next few weeks. If you want to suggest questions that you think should be asked, let us know as soon as possible.

1 comment:

Keti said...

IP research is indeed a new one tied to Interpressnews and we tried much to somehow find their contacts. They did the survey around Tbilisi actually and as they told us tried to call people at weekends and evenings not to make the poll women-biased. Did not specify, however, how many men and women participated. They said margin of error is +-5%.