Nagorno-Karabakh: Prospects for a Difficult Reconciliation (Azerbaijan)

Many domestic and international observers consider the territorial dispute over Nagorno Karabakh to be one of the most significant issues in Azerbaijan. Gibler and Miller (2012) argue that "states must often settle territorial issues with their neighbors in order to democratize" ("Quick Victories? Territory, Democracies and Their Disputes"). The 2011 Caucasus Barometer (CB) covered several questions in Azerbaijan and Armenia about Nagorno Karabakh. This blog will cover the results in Azerbaijan and the next blog will cover the results in Armenia. The results show that the territorial problem is considered one of the most important issues in Azerbaijan. There is also a great deal of uncertainty about when the conflict will be resolved, and whether a solution would be achieved by peaceful negotiations or by force. Additionally, most of the population in Azerbaijan thinks Turkey should be involved in the conflict resolution process, and a majority of Azerbaijanis favor the integration of the area within the national boundaries of Azerbaijan.

 Source: CB 2011, 2010, 2009

About one third (31%) of Azerbaijanis in 2011 consider territorial integrity to be the most important issue in the country—followed by unemployment (28%). This is a substantial drop from 2010 when just over half of the population found territorial integrity to be the most important issue in the country. There is no notable variation in opinion across age groups, gender or level of education. For example, men are as concerned about this issue (32%) as women (30%). 

In general, uncertainty and pessimism are the most widespread feelings about finding a solution to the conflict. About 34% of Azerbaijanis have no idea when the conflict will be resolved. 10% think Azerbaijan and Armenia will never be able to find a solution. 5% believe the problem will be resolved within the next year, 24% say in 2-5 years, 12% in 6-10 years and 12% in more than 10 years. The remaining 3% believe that the conflict has already been resolved. 

Public opinion is also split about whether a potential solution would most likely be achieved by peaceful negotiations or by force. Just about 51% in Azerbaijan think a solution will come about by peaceful negotiations and 42% think a forceful solution would be expected. In addition, survey respondents were asked to indicate their level of acceptance over separately listed potential outcomes to the conflict. The majority (90%) favor the integration of Nagorno Karabakh within the national boundaries of Azerbaijan (without any kind of regional autonomy). 23% definitely favor granting the region some degree of autonomy (28% would accept autonomy under some circumstances and 40% would never accept it). Other provided options such as joint governance of the region by Armenia and Azerbaijan, the establishment of an independent state of Nagorno Karabakh, or making the territory a formal part of Armenia are not favored by the majority of the population (84%, 82% and 95%, respectively). 

Source: CB 2011

 

The 2011 CB also asked Azerbaijanis about which countries or groups they think should be involved in helping to solve the conflict. The majority of Azerbaijanis welcome heavier involvement by Turkey (86%). Russia is preferred as the second option, consistently with the recent development of dialogue promoted by Moscow ("Russia to continue to push for Nagorny Karabakh Dialogue"). This is followed by the European Union (40%), United States (35%), and France’s involvement is the least favored at 15%. 

Source: CB 2011

Thus, the survey results show that there is a large interest in the Nagorno Karabakh issue in Azerbaijan. Many are unsure about when the conflict will be resolved, and whether a solution would be achieved by peaceful negotiations or by force. Most of the population favors the integration of the area within the national boundaries of Azerbaijan and see a large role for Turkey in the conflict resolution process.

Interested in knowing more about these survey questions and how they differ with respect to socio-demographic groups in Azerbaijan? Visit CRRC’s fun and easy Online Data Analysis tool online at http://www.crrc.ge/oda/

Prejudices and Impressions? | Google Reveals All

An American researcher came up with an ingenious idea for capturing Americans' impressions of each other – simply check auto-complete in Google. The beauty of this research is that people typically don't feel directly observed while Googling, and thus are likely to ask the questions that otherwise they may not be willing to voice. And auto-complete illustrates that lots of people have been asking this question. In other words, we can expect that it is representative of Google searches – not what everybody thinks, but what searchers are looking for. For a detailed illustration of how that looks on an American map, and a description of the research, go here.

How does this look for the Caucasus? Azerbaijanis, to start out, with simply aren't on the map of people asking very specific questions about them. The main question that comes up relates to Eurovision.

The same is true about Georgians. They don't quite make it, or rather are thrown in with those Georgians
living around Atlanta.

As for Armenians, the searchers do not seem to be positively inclined. Yep, that's not too attractive, but this is what is out there.

The Russians get a mixed review. Why are the man so big, the women so pretty, and the people so crazy?

A great example of original research into stereotyping, and I wonder whether it would work for Google in Armenian, Azerbaijani and Georgian. While it is not a survey of people, it is a survey of searches, and thus tells us people's curiosity. If you find some of that as unsettling as I did, there is a search for you:

Education in Georgia: Results of the 2011 Caucasus Barometer

Education is considered to be a crucial factor for social development. According to the 2011 Caucasus Barometer (CB) survey, much of the Georgian population considers education to be an important factor to get a good job in Georgia. Public interest in education is high and many Georgians think that the quality of secondary education has improved during the last five years.

The CB 2011 asked Georgians to choose the most interesting issue they would like to learn about from a provided list. Just over half of the population (55%) said they would like to get information about how much the government spent on education in 2010, which falls far above the interest in getting information about television stations’ owners (6%), political parties’ donors (5%), and government spending on military and defence in 2010 (6%). The high amount of interest in the government’s spending on education is one indicator of the high importance that the population ascribes to education.

Source: CB 2011

The 2009, 2010 and 2011 CB surveys asked Georgians what they consider to be the most important factor for getting a good job in Georgia. The data reveals an interesting trend. Much of the Georgian population attaches increasingly high importance to education, while the importance of social connections for getting a good job in Georgia has decreased during the past 3 years. In 2008 just under half (43%) of the adult population thought connections was the most important factor for getting a job, while this share decreased to 19% in 2011. In 2011, education became the most commonly mentioned factor for getting a good job in Georgia.

Source: CB 2009, 2010, 2011

Moreover, over half of the population (66%) thinks that the quality of secondary education has improved during the last five years and only 9% believe that it has worsened. A small part of Georgia’s population (9%) thinks that the quality of education has not changed at all and 15% either do not know or refused to answer the question.

Source: CB 2011

CRRC also asked Georgians what they think their level of English and Russian knowledge is and what foreign languages they think should be mandatory in secondary schools. Despite the fact that more people in Georgia report a better command of Russian, Georgians support having English as a mandatory subject in secondary schools (69%) - much more than Russian (14%). According to the 2011 CB, 62% of the population say they have no basic knowledge of English, while this share decreases to 9% in the case of Russian. 20% say they have intermediate or advanced knowledge of English, and 74% say the same for Russian.

Source: CB 2011

To sum up, education is gaining increasing importance and interest among the Georgian public who positively evaluate the quality of education in secondary schools relative to the past 5 years. CB data indicates that more Georgians consider education to be an important factor for getting a good job, and there is an increasing demand for English knowledge. In other words, the importance of education for getting a good job and knowledge of English is gradually replacing the importance of social connections for the former and the demand for knowledge of Russian with respect to the latter. 

You are also welcome to explore the newest data about education and other social issues via CRRC’s Online Data Analysis tool.

Perceived Poverty in Georgia: Results of the 2011 Caucasus Barometer

The 2011 Caucasus Barometer asked the Georgian population, “Relative to most of the households around you, would you describe the current economic condition of your household as very good, good, fair, poor or very poor? The results revealed that 24% of Georgians rate their households’ economic condition relative to most households in Georgia as poor or very poor. 68% say it is fair and only 8% rate it as good or very good. Analysis shows that people in these three groups differ from each other, not only in terms of their perceived economic status, but also in a wide range of activities and feelings such as reading printed media, participating in social and cultural activities, and having feelings of happiness and good health.

Source: Caucasus Barometer 2011, Georgia

Note: In this and following charts the original five-point scale is collapsed to a three-point scale by merging “very poor” (1) and “poor” (2) as poor=1, and “very good” (5) and “good”(4) as good=3. The original score of 3 has been changed to 2 for fair. 

As the chart shows, people who consider themselves poor compared to most households in Georgia are less likely to read newspapers, spend time with friends, go for a walk, visit the theatre/cinema, do sports or exercise, or go to a public meeting than those who consider their economic status as fair or good. These data indicate that people who perceive their economic condition as good compared to most households in Georgia are forerunners in adopting a healthy life style and much more involved in social and cultural activities.

Moreover, the data show that there are some differences between these three groups in their health status, or to be more precise, in how they rate their health. The next chart shows that approximately one third (31%) of those who perceive themselves as poor compared to most households in Georgia rate their health as poor. This share decreases to 13% in the group of people who consider their economic status to be fair and to 4% for those who perceive their economic situation as good.

Source: Caucasus Barometer 2011, Georgia

Perceived poverty, less involvement in recreational activities and poor health status may be reflected in feelings of happiness. Indeed, data from the Caucasus Barometer indicate that people who perceive themselves as poor compared to most households in Georgia are more likely to say they feel unhappy.

Source: Caucasus Barometer 2011, Georgia

The chart shows that approximately one quarter (24%) of people who perceive themselves as poor are unhappy, while this share decreases to 3% in those who consider themselves to be in a better economic situation compared to most households in Georgia.

To conclude, the 2011 Caucasus Barometer data show that people in Georgia who consider themselves to be poor compared to most households in Georgia are less likely to spend time with friends, participate in different social and cultural events, or follow a healthy lifestyle (sports, exercise, hiking, etc.) than those who describe their economic condition as fair or good. These people are also less likely to consider themselves happy and rate their health as poor. 

The 2011 Caucasus Barometer offers more interesting data which is available and free on CRRC’s Online Data Analysis tool. Try it out!

New and Old Media: Trends in Azerbaijan

Despite some international criticism on media freedom, nationwide survey data shows that Azerbaijanis seem to be generally satisfied with certain forms of national mass media—although with a few exceptions. The overall picture that emerges from the 2011 Caucasus Barometer in Azerbaijan is that 44% of the population thinks TV journalists inform the population well, 32% are neutral, and 16% say TV journalists do not inform the population well (7% don’t know). A 2012 survey conducted by CRRC on Social Capital, Media and Gender (download at http://www.crrccenters.org/activities/research/?id=70) highlights some interesting facts about how Azerbaijanis use mass media and how they stay informed.

Taken together, channels of information such as television and personal networks remain favored by a majority of the population, whereas new media such as the internet still plays a minor role. Television is the preferred main source of information by 90% of the population. This is followed by informal personal networks such as family members and neighbors/friends that are preferred by 30% and 27% of the population, respectively, as their second main source of information. These ways of obtaining information far outstrip the internet or printed media (e.g., newspapers).

Source: Social Capital, Media and Gender in Azerbaijan, 2012

Television plays a pivotal role in Azerbaijan since the majority of the population uses it as their main source of information. Moreover, when asked to assess the level of importance for media to freely publish news and ideas without government control, 75% of Azerbaijanis think this is very important for TV. This is followed by fewer people who say that this freedom is very important for the radio (23%), internet (34%) and newspapers (27%).

In general, newspapers are less preferred in the country. 79% of Azerbaijanis do not read newspapers at all, 10% read them but not daily, and the other 11% say they read newspapers at some point on an average day. This indication of discontent with printed media seems to be stronger in rural regions where the percentage of those who do not read newspapers at all increases to 87%. The most common reasons people give for not reading newspapers are little interest (37%), not enough time to read them (21%), insufficient distribution (14%) and a lack of money (11%).

Source: Social Capital, Media and Gender in Azerbaijan, 2012

 Another interesting result that has emerged from the data is that general internet use is low in Azerbaijan. 64% of Azerbaijanis never use the internet and 11% say they don’t know what the internet is. Out of those who say they never use the internet, slightly more are women (55%) than men (45%). 17% use the internet at least once a week (up from 10% in 2010) and 7% access the web at most once a month.

The so-called digital divide which refers to inequalities within a society in terms of access to or knowledge of information and communication technologies is one of the reasons for the low level of internet usage in the country. 34% of Azerbaijanis have limited or no access to a computer or mobile phone (these two items were asked about within the same question), and 10% do not use the internet due to old age. Moreover, 27% of the population says that it has no interest using the internet. However, interestingly the level of education is positively associated with internet usage as 62% of adults with a degree above a Bachelors use the internet at least once a week.

Source: Social Capital, Media and Gender in Azerbaijan, 2012

More trends emerge with regard to radio usage. 56% of the population listens to news on national radio channels at least once a week and about 10% listen to regional channels for news. However, much of the population listens to the radio for entertainment such as popular (83%) or classical (61%) music. 

In summary, Azerbaijanis still prefer to rely on television and personal networks to obtain the news. It will be interesting to observe if Azerbaijan will follow the same path as many western countries in which there is an increasing importance of new media or if it will continue to place primary importance on TV and personal networks.